Friday, March 27, 2009

台灣提出棄除「一中」框架與反分裂國家法(下)

馬英九刺探性提出棄除「一中」框架及反分裂國家法,觸及這兩項重大的大陸對台政策,無論後續如何,成效如何,都會為兩岸關係帶來一個未知的變數;這個變數嚴重影響兩岸政治關係的互動性質,朝向政治和解,抑或在一個中短期內,定調經濟引導政治的格局;前者是胡溫所說的新格局,後者勢將步台商投資大陸只觸及利益民生領域的歷史後塵,即所謂的在政治被隔離下偏重發展兩岸「重利」的關係。

顯然的,馬英九如此全方位提出「兩項棄除」,攸關兩岸和平與共榮的關係,並非如一些大陸學者所謂的「擺明的屬於台獨的立場」,反而是馬英九政府立意要剷除阻礙兩岸關係達啟開政治談判門的重重難關 ,力排眾議 ( 陳肇敏應是奉命高調提出(六) 放棄武力犯台;及(七) 棄除「一中」框架),致力突破兩岸政治關係目前陷入的進退維谷。

※ 兩岸角力游戲開始

這將是兩岸關係致力恢復正常化,由「兩項棄除」帶頭欣起的兩岸戰略角力的重頭戲!

馬英九是基於去年來兩岸持續互釋善意,建立互信的基礎,自我定調「內化」下,提出具有「暗喻要求對等地位」的「七連珠(彈)」;其中兩顆佔據主位的珠(彈)(龍眼)即為反分裂國家法及「一中」框架「兩項棄除」,其餘三顆為圍繞龍眼的副星,反而馬英九再次重申的「一中為中華民國」的一顆,「可虛可實」,緊扣「一中」或「一國」的選項。

依筆者觀察,「七星陣」佈局嚴謹,先提出的廢除反分裂國家法,與最後提出的棄除「一中」框架為兩岸關係正常化的「雙眼」,擔綱照明前路的「燈」是民主核心價值(第一顆星);一旦兩岸揮灑巨大政治能量,協商兩岸政策,妥善處理及解決針對台獨的反分裂國家法,並依據兩岸互動變化,重新「斟酌「一中框架概念或直接晉入一國選項的意識形態議題,其餘三顆多屬技術性的副議題,將能順勢迎刃而解。

※ 大陸手法須更靈巧

國家和平「與「統一的手法應有選項:「一中」框架的設立,是否應由大陸全權代辦?提出這樣的問題的背景是九二共識的一中各表已不再管用。儘管「溫報告」中重提九二共識,然而還是有所保留未提一中各表。大陸仍然對一中各表保持不置可否的態度,相信這是馬英九持續硬起來的主因。也是「七連珠(彈)」出擊擔當的重任,鉤勒一個替代「一中」框架方案的選項。

筆者的多篇前文已提及國家和平與統一的方法及路線的問題,必須彈性及靈活處理,如果一中不能表,九二共識的一中各表只是「虛有其表」,如此沒有內涵的九二共識要來做什麼?不再有任何意義;關鍵其實是,只要最終的「果」是一個稱為中國的國家,無論是「一中」或「一國」的原則在取得績效上並無分別。

就如筆者數篇前文分析兩岸關係已進入微妙階段及重大戰略性階段,一個不小心行差踏錯,會打回原形,前功盡費。從「溫報告」即可反映兩岸關係的峰迴路轉,溫家寶小心翼翼重提九二共識,不提一國兩制及台獨即是一個很好說明的例子。

然而,溫家寶的「小心翼翼」正好反映大陸對台策略的搖擺不定。他只是達到補充「胡六點」的作用,無法向台灣釋出正確清晰的信息,到底一中各表仍然管不管用? 這正是台灣所要的,否則台灣被迫提出自己的看法。

實際上,兩岸互動,要達成簽署和平協議(包括為和平協議引路的CECA),都存在著一定的壓力,在現階段,台灣的壓力似乎較大陸為重。這是大陸只談大格局大 方向(有宣傅的口惠),不談具體的實惠的後果。相信大陸深知此難處,CECA 會冒現,變得那麼迫切要簽定,不無與此有關。

大陸在對台灣做出反應之前有必要參考台灣的出師表,其動機及前瞻作用如下:

第一,為何台灣在乎反分裂國家法 ? (請參閱「內化」進程跨前一步,消毒/解毒(獨)的作用;一旦廢除,相等於在政治上宣判「台獨意識「無期徒刑。在理,在統一,及在消獨上皆通。)

第二,為何要求廢除反分裂國家法, 通過陸委會主委及國防部長提出?

第三,反分裂國家法的廢存對台灣的涵意是什麼?

第四,反分裂國家法的意義與功能,是否跟得上兩岸關係的進展?

第五,廢除後,對兩岸關係帶來的意義。

第六,棄除「一中」框架,應與大陸遲遲拖延一中各表的「踩空」解讀。(相關「一中」與「一國」的選項關係,筆者多篇前文已有詳盡分析,在此不再贅述)

筆者無意逐一解答上述六個提問;不過,有一點非常明確,廢除反分裂國家法,會對台獨意識帶來樹倒猢猻散的效應。因為它的廢除將是台獨的「烈士碑」。

反分裂國家法,可視為兩岸關係邁向和解的心理障礙,一天不解下,總是覺得有一把無形的刃首在眼前幌來幌去(請問問馬英九感覺如何),渾身不自在也, 如此的兩岸關係能取得有意義的進展!

筆者認為馬英九提出概括政治,經濟,軍事,安全,「甚至觸及「一中」紅色底線的議題,除了跨海兩岸的核心價值外,反分裂國家法是兩岸和平共榮必須解決的政策性議題(一旦該法被廢除,台灣政府反台獨的政治立場即被定調下來);其他議題分屬各別領域,而「一中」底線被觸及,則必須要回到「九二共識的一中各表」的原則性課題。這個課題非同小可,不只它觸及兩岸關係的和平與統一的原則,也觸及兩岸對國家民族統一的選項。換言之,既然大陸至今選擇「一中未表」,自去年初以來即迴避一中表述,那麼這是否意味著兩岸對構成國家的原則有選項?鑑此,台灣有權提出選項!

這個問題事關重大,既使在人大上提呈的「溫報告「重提九二共識,不過,這似乎不足於對馬英九政府有所釋疑。原因很簡單,大陸對構成國家和平與統一的政策有反覆與飄忽的記錄,因為當年是大陸堅持必須遵守九二共識的原則,如今卻舉棋不定,令人難以信服!?馬英九提出棄除「一中」框架的選項,空穴必招風,事出必有因,與大陸遲遲都一中不表大有關係。

馬政府這回抓緊機會向大陸亮出四招,此四招與之前的三招,有本質上的不同(大陸收到嗎?),前三招有見招拆招的應對,比較溫和,第四招反而有直搗黃龍,拆除兩岸障礙,為未來談判與和平協議鋪路的動作,棄除「一中「框架強烈暗喻兩岸政治關係應考慮重新洗牌的選項。

表面看,馬政府有硬化立場的傾向,實際上,馬政府在一中各表「踩空「後,有轉而求其次的作法,並向大陸釋出一個非常重要的信息:台灣準備好了,請清除台獨意識的阻力,替代「一中」直接晉入「一國」;看樣子,馬政府再次審時度勢,準備面對一個沒有九二共識,沒有一中各表的兩岸和平共榮前景的新格局。

小結:預料馬英九將根據「七連珠(彈)」的佈陣提出回應「胡六點」兩岸和平政策的綱領;如此概括政治,經濟,促進軍事交流建立互信與安全機制的一幅兩岸中短關係的路線圖,不是已經鉤勒出來了嗎!

兩岸創新用語分享: (一)「七連珠(彈)」; (二)「七星陣」;(三) 空穴必招風


●編按:李先生大作共分上下兩篇,因機制關係,無法完整呈現原作標題,為避免失真,茲臚列如下:

兩岸關係從微妙到攻略:馬政府發「七連珠(彈)」,大陸恐難招架!(上) http://www.nownews.com/2009/03/20/142-2424971.htm

兩岸關係從微妙到攻略:台灣提出棄除「一中」框架與反分裂國家法(下)

馬政府發「七連珠(彈)」,大陸恐難招架!(上)

持續「練身「的馬英九,不到一個月內,向大陸發動「七連珠(彈)」;一時間,兩岸政治戰略的天空風雲密佈,後續勢將高潮迭起!

緊隨著溫家寶本月初,在全國人大提呈政府工作報告對台政策中,四年來首次不提一國兩制,台獨,及再提九二共識向台灣示好(回應一中未表)後,本月中,台灣國民黨政府通過陸委會開腔要大陸廢除「反分裂國家法」,撤除飛彈,及國防部長陳肇敏要大陸棄除「一個中國」框架,並重申陸委會撤除飛彈要求,及放棄武力犯台共計四項要求,不及兩周,兩岸關係「政治戰略交鋒」再升溫!

馬政府對大陸加強「攻勢」,使出連環四招,顯示一度被迫宮的馬英九,再次棄守為攻,改變戰略,應硬則硬,該軟即軟(如解說提出ECFA的因由) ,立場穩健,不只完全洗脫優柔寡斷的印象,猶有進者,毅然跨出一幅硬朗果敢的形象,的確令人刮目相看。

之前,馬英九已接二連三向大陸擺明陣勢,提出「民主核心論」,提出CECA「協定,策略,及再次重申一個中國即是中華民國的鮮明立場,可謂三面包抄大陸拒絕正視九二共識的一中各表的正題,其中外圍戰由陸委會主委賴幸媛點燃「胡六點」的「協議」與「協定」之爭(詳情參閱相關前文)。

今次馬英九通過陸委會主委賴幸媛及台灣國防部長陳肇敏唱雙簧,重申棄除「一中」框架要求,使兩岸跨海的政治攻略持續擴大及升級。這麼一來,馬政府七項要求串成一排,形成「七連珠(彈)」,如此的大動作,實在引人入勝。

台灣方面,軍方首長陳陈肇敏同日更是對大陸提出了三個條件,包括大陸必須撤銷對準台灣導彈,放棄武力犯台,及棄除「一中」框架,否則沒法建立兩岸矚意的軍事互信。

上月來,馬英九來對大陸展開的凌厲攻勢,除了本身開腔,及通過陸委會發招,事隔不及半月,再次通過陸委會及首次通過國防部長持續展開外圍戰。馬英九練身不及一年的功力,果然真的是「堅且硬」起來了!

兩岸的策略交鋒由隱性演進至顯性,昭示兩岸政治的良性交鋒已無可避免晉入一場「策略肉博戰「,這是好事,因為兩岸在建立一定的善意與互信基礎後,現在是把近來幾年來累積的善意與互信付諸考驗的時候 (經不起考驗的互信要來做什麼? )。

現在且讓我們重溫馬英九在短短不及一個月向大陸發放的「七連珠(彈)」:

本月上旬馬英九在不同場合先後提出:

(一 ) 兩岸民主核心論(容忍與和解);


(二) 提出CECA「協定」爭議 (後由馬英九主動改為ECFA協議);


(三) 再次重申一個中國即是中華民國的鮮明立場;


本月中旬馬政府一口氣通過賴幸媛及陳肇敏提出:


(四) 廢除反分裂國家法;


(五) 撤除飛彈;


(六) 放棄武力犯台;


(七) 棄除「一中」框架。

反觀大陸一般網民的反應,似乎不太了解及欣賞兩岸政治過招的「好戲」,從隱性提升至顯性的積極涵意;另一邊廂,大陸一些保守派學者專家對馬政府的要求,置疑為「馬並非台獨?為何要提出廢除反分裂國家法的要求」。

有時,學者專家會鑽進牛角尖分析問題。這就是一個明顯的例子。試問如果馬是台獨分子,他會提出廢除反分裂國家法的要求嗎?這樣的邏輯/思維分析真是讓人丈八金剛摸不著頭腦!再舉例,陳水扁是顯性,不折不扣的台獨之子,他會提出反分裂國家法嗎?馬英九與陳水扁,敢問大陸專家學者,誰提出反分裂國家法才符合羅輯與戰略考量?

一個擺明搞台獨陣勢,脫軌的陳水扁既然是名正言順的台獨之子,何來提出反分裂國家法?這個問題壓根兒不存在! (相反的,在戰略上,反分裂國家法正是「台獨夢幻者「所要的東西。說得比較淺白些,反分裂國家法起碼為台獨的反宣傳作用,照亮了台灣夢幻者的大夢,正中下懷,反映「夢幻台獨分子」存在的價值與分量,使到台獨分子堂而皇之存活!歡迎都還來不及,何來廢除之呢!

台灣陸委會形容反分裂國家法過時,無法與時併進,正好反映台灣政府的兩岸立場圓融,跟上及跟進了兩岸最新趨勢。台灣陸委會14日說,希望大陸當局廢止不合時宜的反分裂國家法,撤除對台飛彈部署,恢復台海區域和平穩定,才能開創兩岸互惠雙贏新局。如此才能符合其「和平發展」的論調,真正恢復台海區域和平與穩定,才能開創兩岸互惠雙贏的新格局。

2005年制定的反分裂國家法,主要是要對付民進黨的陳水扁政府通過公投交由民意取決台灣法理上宣佈獨立,單方面脫離中國。所以,它主要是針對陳水扁政府的台獨傾向。再說,兩岸並非處於分裂的狀況,「胡六點」不是講得很清楚嗎!兩岸的分離/分治是國共內戰餘留下來的問題!何來分裂。

陳肇敏以罕有的高姿度,提出第五至第七招,不受大陸輿論與學者歡迎,這是可以預料的,特別是關於要大陸放棄對台動武及棄除「一中」框架,不只備受非議,甚至認為這是兩岸關係進入到緊密合作、高度互信階段時候招惹的反效果,並預言不僅導致兩岸軍事互信永遠無法構建,「兩岸關係也將大倒退,導致摧毀至盡。」

陳肇敏措詞直率說了一句很務實且意義深長的話,「現在並非兩岸軍事交流最好時機,因為互信機制走出去就沒有回頭路……解放軍在此議題上還沒有具體善意。」

綠燈亮乎? 兩岸關係要走正常化,和平發展的這粒重量球,應是馬英九政府回應「胡六點」與「溫報告」補充提出的「釋疑」的要求,大陸有必要慎重及全方正視之,而非頭痛醫頭腳痛醫腳,兩岸關係繼續膠著或與時併進,就要看一黨專政的中共內部的政治的凝聚力到那裡。

單看馬英九的全方位擺陣,馬英九似乎借此向大陸發出一個強烈的信息----台灣已準備好與大陸展開直接的政治談判--政治談判的跫音近了!

※ 「七星陣」嚴正以待

隨著馬英九的「七連珠(彈)」先後發射,擺了個「七星陣」(居中那顆是有待去留的「一中」框架),如此觀之,大體上,馬英九政府已劃清了回應「胡六點」佈局綱要。問題是大陸領導人如何詮釋及是否欣賞馬英九政府的「坦誠與直率「(把妨礙兩岸和平關係的癥結一一點出)。「七連珠(彈)」是「珠」還是「彈」?大陸的政治尺牘是擺在跨海兩岸的共同價值觀--民主與(平等)對等上--還是堅守大陸的政治主體性,體現兩岸對等觀,這對大陸是一個嚴竣的考驗。

說穿了,這是一個大陸貫徹民主與平等價值觀的契機的起點;正如台方陳肇敏所說,在宣傳上,大陸向台方持續發放善意已經到位,如今應是超越口惠,付諸實踐,執行承諾的時候了;兩岸關係能否持續向前,向上,以致向善發展,其順應大勢的成形,即是應驗水到渠成的「道」。這一大關如何闖,就看大陸的中庸之道釋出的自信了!

補充兩句:胡溫所著眼的和平新格局就在腳下;兩岸戰略交鋒持續,肯定的,兩岸未來3年的協商/交鋒期項目排得密密,攻略密佈下,工蜂幾乎傾巢而出,還有空檔冷卻下來嗎?

民主與統一同步並行,兩岸融合必經過程

(兼回應高達宏文友引述筆者的評語)

兩岸民主,和平與統一的課題關係到中華民族團結,復興的重大議題。全球華人,包括台灣人要以什麼取角去看得這個民族事業,並曉以大義。

民主(政治改革),和平,與兩岸最終的統一,復興是互為關係,環環相扣的,是構成民族團結,復興,缺一不可的三大元素,問題是兩岸民族如何達致認知與認可的共識,在方法上,策略上,找到一個最適宜,雙贏到位手法。這才是問題的關鍵。

如此一個匯集兩岸智慧與個別經驗結晶的方法,並不能單靠「被動的民主」與「靜態的和平」的概念的表張而獲得執行。

台民主示範

筆者這麼說,最大的用意是指實踐民主才有雋永的價值,舉例說,台灣的實踐民主從1986年的國民黨的蔣經國的黨報集會解禁算起,也只有短短的20多年。雖然實踐民主制度的時日尚淺短,然而,台灣人非常感恩與珍惜當年高瞻遠矚的蔣經國的貢獻,這不在話下。

當然,台灣式的三權分立的制度上,三權分立(考試和監察權已名存實亡),分得不清不楚的立法,行政,司法的制衡機制(checks and balances),以及公民社會行使監督的權力與權限的界定,還是有重疊與混亂的現象,可見實施了20多年的民主制度仍然大有改善的餘地 (前總統陳水扁海外洗錢受審的司法實例,包括媒體的干擾性報導,正好說明台灣司法給人一種程序混亂,三權界線難以釐清的印象,法官的素質也有問題);就如推崇民主革新的一位中共黨校著名理論學者宜可平時常掛在咀邊的一句話;「民主就好像陀羅,旋轉才有意義…」。

唯有通過實踐吸收經驗,並持續調整,讓民主完善化,才是漸進及具有原動力的民主。換句話說,民主不是裝飾品,不是口號,它是建立尊重社會基本權力與行使這個權力的指導,原則,與精神規範的依歸,也是一種生活方式的價值。國家憲法即是在這種原則價值的指引下擬定的。

民主:筆者前文探討跨海兩岸「有無共同價值觀」的課題上,在筆者認知的範圍內,已確認民主為兩岸關係跨海的共同價值(參閱前文)。今天兩岸的關係是否朝著民主方向挺進!明眼人一看已不再置疑了(可能有所保留的,是它的方式與協商的態度)。

兩岸都在變

無論是直接或間接參(包括輿論媒體)兩岸事務的各造,多多少少會感受到在「變」的不只是大陸,台灣也在變。當然變的性質與尺牘不一樣,變得效果也不同。兩岸都是在各自的現實框架內「求變」,有一點卻是方向一致,大家都是朝著民主,和平,最終統一,而做出出自本身考量的「變」。國民黨馬英九去年二度輪替執政以來,兩岸的關係在短短不到一年大家都變得不可同日而語了。或許朝向統一的部份,台灣仍然存有所保留/異議,有異議無疑符合儒家價值的「不同而和」,與「存異求同」,謀求雙贏的努力正是沉澱後的再出發。

和平:有人認為,大陸是一黨專政的國家,與大陸講民主,無疑緣木求魚,與夏蟲語冰;講和平還可以,至於有無民主攸關和平嗎? 這是一個可以辯論的課題。事實是大陸是否擁有某種程度的民主表象,或說具有進行政治改革的初徵?答案因人而異,見人見智,為一個開放式的答案。

或許,為了更準確回答這個問題,問者只要答覆一個框架內的反問── 一個沒有意向展開和平統一的大陸,與今天確有以和平方式統一意向的大陸,兩者有何不同?特別是對台灣的涵意,今天的台灣會感受到大陸持續釋放的善意嗎?還是今天的台灣的「民主威脅/恐嚇感」會否加劇?(筆者無意代台灣人回答。)請台灣人,尤其是仍然選擇活在「台獨烏托邦」的島民動動腦筋想想,答案與大陸的民主價值的認知有關連。(再不然,問問大陸中共黨內伺機蠢動的主戰派,答案就寫在黑板上。)

有些問題不需要直接解答yes or no,卻需要問者進行反思,沉澱,反省。

只要是心懷中華民族的全世界華人都不會阻撓兩岸民族的重歸統一,都會以寬容的視野,高瞻遠矚的精神去期待,如果有幸參與民族最終的統一與復興的過程與努力;人同此心,心同此理,普天下稍微具有民族情操的華人都寄望這一天早日降臨,儘管急躁不得,十分考驗忍功。

筆者可以肯定,大陸政治改革帶來建立民主體制的實踐體驗,是遲早的問題,畢竟大陸無論在幅員,人口與天然資源方面,台灣都不能成正比。台灣民主化的經驗固然重要,因為它是中華民族疆域上唯一的民主實驗體,筆者實踐大中華願景下提出「克隆台灣」的倡議,以台灣民主實踐為借鏡,說穿了,是權宜之計。筆者在去年一篇比較早期的評論中(請參閱「克隆台灣呼之卻出」),已提到台灣實踐民主的參考,儘管台灣民主實踐所建立的體制存有瘕疵,不過它是地地道道的本土民主實驗,大陸國家主席胡錦濤不是曾講過嗎,中國不會照搬西方的民主制度,捨棄台灣本土式民主,夫復何求?

站在中華民族的立場,大陸的政治改革(民主化的啟動與其進程)是一項世界級的偉大人文改造工程。可用上「排山倒海,史無前例,不只改善民主,甚至創新人類的文明史」這四句話來形容中國的民主社會工程的啟動帶來震撼性,也不為過 (希望現在講不會言之過早!)。所以說,未來20、30年是中國人改造歷史的篇章,大陸領導人能開放胸襟,英勇擺脫教條思想,站在前人的肩膀遠眺未來,這個未來肯定是屬於中國人引領群雄的偉大時代。現時美國引發的全球金融海嘯及接踵而來的經濟大衰退,是一個重要的徵兆,東方人傳承的固有美德,價值與智慧,包括中道和諧的精神將照明全球,並得到一個歷史性機遇參與重新打造普世價值鍊。

小結:簡單講一句,大陸以致中國最終有無民主,台灣責無旁貸!民主與快樂及民族大愛一樣,必須分享才有意義,何況是同胞!

感想:可能筆者想得太遠,因為杜甫有一句名言暗喻中國人想得太遠,想得太多,「人無百歲命,長懷千歲憂」(筆者斗膽把它改為「人無百歲命,只懷百歲憂」);中國人動不動就要搞「千秋大業」,讓我們包袱很重,且讓我們不要憂百年,只活在當下,只關注中華民族的和平與統一的根基,以後的事就讓新一代的中國人去擔當,關懷吧!可能他們游戲人間的天性,遼闊的人文觀,加上先天減免情意結賜予後天的情緒智商,以沒包袱一身輕的心態,腦筋轉幾轉,一拍即合,問題就迎刃而解了!

Friday, March 13, 2009

九二共識再浮現之:不提一國兩制及台獨的中庸思路(下篇)

自2006年以來,大陸總理溫家寶每年一次的政府工作報告,都按例提出「一國兩制,和平統一」的定調,及反台獨的鮮明立場。2009年卻字隻字不提「一國兩制」及「台獨」。心懷中華民族的全球華社,必定心存疑竇,溫家寶葫蘆裡賣什麼藥?

就如筆者多篇前文所指,近期的兩岸關係的確出現微妙的轉變,如此的轉變正面多過負面。有時,所謂正面並非指都是關係快速改善的消息,反而是互動頻密,增強了解,雙方都認知尊重彼此的立場與出發,這即是去年來,兩岸出現「和而不同」詮釋的真義。

溫家寶的工作報告予人有一種認知和解的平常心的流露,不再含有情緒激昂的對峙,敵我二分法的心態。

國家和平統一的大業可以以平常心對待嗎?既然和平關係發展的前提,和諧氣氛擺在第一位,營造和諧必備條件是當然心平氣和,領導人氣定神閒,果敢,氣和而堅定,才能擔當統一的重任。這種以平常心肩負迎接統一大業的挑戰,顯然在大陸領導班子中開始被確定為政治作業的情緒智商的標竿。

※ 鄧公以身試法

即使是中國改革開放的祖師爺鄧小平的所有主張都必須經過時空的考驗,他的政治奮鬥史是一部大起大落的血淚記載,也是中國政體與國體糾纏不清,理還亂的最佳寫照。儘管政治鬥爭有時殘酷無情,不過鄧公始終抱著中庸之道,不走極端,不搞對抗,不宣泄情緒的節操,是他值得全球華人借鏡的另一面。

話說回頭,溫家寶的工作報告隱藏著領導人客觀認知兩岸現實的點點滴滴。不提一國兩制,不表示大陸對台政策捨棄一國兩制,而是尺牘上,能夠容納對一國兩制不同的聲音,修正,補充,甚至超越等。畢竟「一國兩制」並非神聖不可侵犯的真理,或出世間的東西。一國兩制「與」國家和平統一是兩回事,兩者之間不一定劃上等號。兩岸應具有包容異見的胸襟與視野,回歸到之前的原點,非一國兩制不可!這是觀念上的轉變,可喜可賀。寫到這裡,令人不禁看到一股中庸之道的精神流露出來。

* 一國兩制:從不提一國兩制出發,也許可以窺見一個兼容價值觀的冒現,不再是僵化的思維束縛, 超越一國兩制的局限 (必須再指出,超越並非取代),其釋放的空間與力量是巨大的,它讓人得以探討其他更好的選擇,或對各項可行的統一法進行兼收並蓄的整合。

廣東人有句俚語,「一本通書看到老」,凡事都要與時併進,國家統一大業也一樣,不能一成不變,中國人最喜歡說大勢所趨,世上沒有永續不變的方法。

※ 「台獨」可防不宜攻

* 台獨:至於「台獨」,筆者前文之一對「台獨烏托邦」的意識形態加以分析,台獨除了是「幻覺避難所」,充其量也是「愛台自戀狂」的出氣筒,大陸在策略戰術上進行必要的修正,不要跟自己的影子打架,犯上杯弓蛇影之誤。顯然,溫家寶已經看穿台獨虛幻的外套。

台獨意識可比喻為火車脫軌,「可防不宜攻」。可以研究在什麼情況下兩岸關係會脫軌。溫家寶的報告中,有一點非常重要:不提訴諸武力統一台灣的「選項」,與不提台獨的「選項」,如形影隨身,消長更替的睿智彰顯,這件參透玄機的大事,終於出現在大陸領袖的思路中,的確令人喜出望外。退而言之,在具備什麼情況與其條件下,會促成台獨意識得以成形顛覆兩岸關係發展的正軌?也就是上篇所指的「思維脫軌」,已是不言而喻。

※ 中道抬頭

* 中庸之道:如果要用比較感性的文字形容溫家寶對台報告的部份,可反映在一個從「解懷,釋懷,定懷」的心路歷程。一個展現自信與遠見的領袖,除了自我肯定外,亦突現對未來及應對未來變化能力的預見滿懷信心。這可能就是華人領袖,在中庸價值中展現東方謙卑的獨特魅力吧!

兩岸未來整合統一之路是價值融合之道的演義,除了即定的民主,自由,平等,人權的普世價值觀外,中華民族優良傳承的文化價值觀如何滲透兩岸政治文化與政治作業形態,還是有待觀察的演變。尤其是以中道為思想中心的兩岸共同價值的形塑,更令全球華人企盼。

2009年溫家寶的政府工作報告兩岸部份顯露傳承東方價值的端倪,如何持之以繼,以恆,將是兩岸關係融合過程中一顆耀眼的星星,相信亦是心懷中華民族的全球華人以致東方社群,引頸企盼的變化;一個肯定自身優秀文化價值,能夠穿越時空,歷久彌新,與時併進的民族,對自己民族的團結,統一,以致復興,將是流水自然找到自己的定位。

擺在眼前的不再是路在何方,棄醫從文的民族大文豪魯迅說,「路是人走出來的」,如今,在增進善意,強化互信的初階下,「路」的輪廓已逐漸成形,兩岸如何昂首跨步,併駕齊驅,以中華民族的智慧,互信互愛,互相攙扶,互補長短,走出一條真正彰顯民族優秀的「道」,正是溫家寶兩岸工作報告具釋放的協商精神! 也是解放思維的一道曙光。

贈予兩岸領導:理性思考,中道協商, 和平發展,共赴時艱;尊重現實,出發現實,平等雙贏,不同而和,齊頭併進,不同而合。

兩岸創新用語共享:(一)可防不宜攻;(二)中道協商。(下篇完)

九二共識再浮現之:和平發展擔綱兩岸 (上篇)

在難以找到政治共識的定位下,兩岸關係急轉彎,導致「和平協議」退居幕後,CECA(「綜合經濟合作協議」Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement) 領頭開拓兩岸和平的新格局。

大陸迴避九二共識的一中各表,轉向鎖定與台灣擴大經濟合作的CECA為短期目標,此舉一方面應對全球經濟不景氣帶來的挑戰,另一方面相信亦符合舒緩大陸黨內勢力因兩岸政治關係發展過快引發的「政見不協調」。

從這個角度詮釋大陸總理溫家寶在全国人大開幕开幕式上談到台灣的部分時,基本上溫家寶的政府工作報告是補充及延续了“胡六点”對台基調的方向,呈現調適策略的一定靈活性,此舉使大陸對台政策出現令人關注的更大彈性。

溫家寶的談話出現值得垂注的數點新意:

* 重提九二共識:這一點對台灣提出的對等政治地位的訴求非常重要,也是使兩岸未來展開政治談判得以重返歷史共識原點的重點,顯示大陸切切重視台灣的心聲與敏感點。儘管溫家寶未提九二共識下的一中各表,最低程度大陸主導對台關係的九二共識基礎未被捨棄,或被冷藏,維續兩岸關係的九二共識精神得以保溫。

•區隔政治:兩岸關係因九二共識的一中各表阻隔陷入膠著,可能會影響到兩岸其他領域的關係的進展,包括大三通下的經濟,文化,貿易關係的發展,特別是CECA 的簽署。有鑑於此,展現自信的溫家寶立即調整短期的兩岸策略,把比較敏感的政治從經濟,軍事,對外關係中抽離。溫家寶採取「區隔「兩岸政治關係的手法,是一項順應時勢,明智變通的舉措,反映大陸決策層開始落實「先易後難」,「宜經宜政」,「以經輔(帶)政」的調適策略。(無論如何,胡六點主張的「政經雙軌道「仍然是兩岸關係中長期發展路線的主軸,所謂退居幕後只是暫時性的權宜之舉。) (這就是所謂的開創兩岸和平發展的「新格局」)

實際上,在面臨全球金融海嘯引發的嚴重經濟衰退的問題上,其迫切性及嚴重性遠遠超越兩岸長遠的政治關係;尤其是台灣民生面臨的經濟不景的壓力,以一個出口導向的外向型經濟體,在東盟明年生效的東盟加一(中國)的自由貿易區初階經濟共同體,如果台灣不能及時搭上這一列邁向區域域經濟一體化的快車,恐怕台灣將因政治失誤而得不償失,錯過享有龐大的6億市場的減免關稅的機會,並加劇了台灣的經濟危機引發的民生社會動蕩後果,同時給予「台獨烏托邦」分子一個操弄族群的機會;一個不小心,處理不當,勢將對馬英九政府造成一個非常沈重的打擊(甚至被迫付出慘重的政治代價)。這已是可以預料的事。儘管台灣內部存有雜音,明眼人一看就會了然簽還是不簽,處於劣勢的肯定不是大陸 (順道一提,台灣內部的雜音千萬不可因為短暫的政治利益,而刻意阻撓兩岸締結CECA,經濟慘痛的後果除了全島民自負外,難道要叫投機政客負責?)。

溫家寶把政治抽離區隔,不與經濟混為一談,是一記連消帶打的高招。一來,化解CECA成為一中各表陷入膠著的犧牲品;二來,讓盪手的政治議題獲得一個沉澱期,一個快速改善關係後的冷靜降溫的檢討期。相信基於黨內也有反對民主價值觀的雜音,大陸也是需要這樣的政治關係碰撞的「休兵」,以檢討及衡量九二共識一中各表在兩岸關係的策略性地位。

* 還有一點值得一提,從兩岸良性互動的宏觀視野探討,大陸在經濟上對台灣的寬容厚待,非同小可,很多東西已是不言而喻,大陸這個取角彰顯的包容性,台灣應如何解讀,是台灣應做的功課。過去20多年,大陸經濟改革開放以來,台灣與大陸經濟的融合已到達非常頻密緊湊的進程,可謂水乳相融,這是一個不可扭轉的大勢。實際上,大中華經濟圈從80年代以來即是存在的「實體經濟」,加上近期大陸游客大幅度增長(預料今年訪台的大陸游客人數將增至100萬人次)。大三通的「假象」開始發酵,假以時日,帶來的「真象」,對經濟社會效益形成的深遠影響不可被低估。

大陸在兩岸關係上向台灣持續展示的善意,包括屬意與台灣簽署CECA,明顯的,這是為了照顧台灣的尊嚴,從CECA的設計(包括大陸回應馬英九的要求而提議簽署CECA),大陸對台政策的靈活性已做出可觀,且具體的讓步(台灣感受到大陸的誠意嗎?)!再說筆者看不出,台灣與大陸簽署CECA 有何不利不妥,當然島內發出的雜音一味鑽進狹隘的政治,披著「泛島民政治論「看待這種有機,合乎自然規律的融合,那就另當別論。畢竟那是「脫軌思維」在作祟(不值得多提)。

總括言之,溫家寶的兩岸講話,對台灣釋放的善意有加,「補充」了胡六點的與時併進,那是肯定的,問題是在和平協議退居幕後的情景下,除了流水式的大三通外,兩岸要通過什麼比較具體與實質的計劃推動兩岸關係的向前挺進? 眼下的CECA 不就是現實政治狀況的約束下最好的項目嗎? 而且馬英九亦表明,CECA 無關政治,無關主權意識。

※ 政治正門不闖,經濟小門把關

在兩岸一中各自表「休兵「的情況下,且讓CECA暫時領頭,在短期內讓兩岸的改善關係取得一個實質的定位,這也符合筆者建議的兩岸關係必須加以區隔,細化,以取得踏實循序漸進的格局。畢竟一中各表是兩岸高難度的議題,儘管兩岸關係自去年來取得可觀的進展,互信程度與其各自內部的政治協調仍然還未到位(所以「兩會」的幹旋角色功能可能還有作為!),亦是一個不爭的事實。筆者堅信只要兩岸在今年內成功簽定CECA,兩岸在未來3年締結和平協議是可以被指望的。

更值得台灣賞識的是,大陸為了關照台灣的尊嚴,特別使用CECA字眼,不同於一國兩制與香港簽署的CEPA ,也有異於國興國之間簽署的FTA。大陸釋出的「實質誠意」難道台灣感受不到嗎!?

後註:為了平息島內的雜音,馬英九不得不公開出面澄清,並將原來的兩岸「綜合經濟合作協議」(CECA),改成兩岸「經濟合作架構協議「(ECFA) 。由「架構」取代「綜合」。馬解釋說,這個內容是「暫時的」,也「不是一步到位」。馬還特別說明,協議是「非政治性的」,「不會涉及主權、統獨問題」。 (筆者嘗試詮釋兩者有何不同;所謂「綜合「有全面性,整體性的涵意;架構英文原文是Framework,具有涵蓋不同的多層次,擁有必須經歷不同階段,按序的經濟合作的特點,以達到所屬意的合作目標或層次。兩者的差別可能是「綜合」比較具有明確的政策性,唯涉及的領域廣泛;架構則傾向於探索性;前者比較傾向政策導向,後者是探討不同領域的可行合作性,所以是按序而行,具有一定的彈性;儘管字眼名稱上不一樣,在達致功能性以落實宗旨上,相信不會影響兩岸展開全方位的經濟合作的原意,問題只是鑑定那些領域/行業優先進行合作/開放的先後秩序。

溫家寶提到的「兩岸特色的經濟合作機制」,也引起學者的注意。相信這是溫家寶首次以「兩岸特色」的概念形容及給予说明兩岸經濟。這個「兩岸特色」的概念,除了希望與大陸撇開政治議題的干擾,得以在今年內和台灣協商CECA。如上所說CECA非等同國對國的FTA,也不像香港那樣遵循「一國兩制」的模式簽署CEPA,大陸的用心良苦及她發出的的絃外之音,值得台灣玩味無窮。

感想:無論是CECA 抑或馬英九提出修改為ECFA也好,都是兩岸政府邁向和平發展兩岸關係的具體努力,兩岸中期關係沿著即定方向的挺進開拓,應是「宜經宜政」,經政適時相輔相成的彈性雙軌道;基於政治實現的束縛,除了脫軌的台獨意識勢力的小撮雜音外,從正面的觀點探討,兩岸關係走到今日,整體大方向的鉤勒,已令人窺見一個日漸明朗的軌跡,而且是一個充滿靈活與彈性的「宜經宜政」。

換言之,即使大陸未對一中表述,事實是她也未否決表述(還是糢糊空間乎!),這是兩岸領導人深諳「和而不同」的真義;反映兩岸領導人正視兩岸現實,累積互動有了心得;再再彰顯「重返現實,認清現實,尊重現實,出發現實」的和平發展基調的四重門。認知「和而不同」後,兩岸如何過關斬將,連場好戲在往後3個年頭將逐步現真章!

評估:最後,如果筆者能大膽給予客觀的評估,兩岸關係目前的位置是已隱性越過「重返現實」及「認清現實」,正處於如何顯性「尊重現實」的位階;如何尊重現實的學問考驗並不簡單,除了要尊重分歧外,也面對「不同而和」的挑戰;且看兩岸政治精英的思維是放任停滯在牢籠裡,還是主動解放思維,無畏地與時併進,這是兩岸中期關係發展至今最大的「檢驗門」,CECA(ECFA) 過不過關,正是兩岸短期關係第一輪驗明正身。

本期(上)兩岸創新用語:(一)宜經宜政;(二)脫軌思維;(三)彈性雙軌道;(四 )檢驗門,以此與關懷及研究兩岸課題的各界分享交流,個人部落格網址:www.kinglee lianganguanxi.blogspot.com (先進入google blog search)(下篇待續)

Monday, March 9, 2009

視而不見「和解門」,和平協議沒門!

兩岸關係隨時步入一個處理不當,全功盡費的轉捩點。這是去年以來,兩岸關係急速進展所帶來的艱鉅挑戰。

「胡六點」一個重要的指標為兩岸的政治關係應追上經濟關係。不能任由經濟獨挑大樑。事因80年代至今,台商風起雲湧到大陸投資,兩岸政治關係不進反退,險象環生,說明了一個非常淺顯的硬道理,那就是沒有政治領航的兩岸經貿關係發展,無助於政治門檻的調低,甚至會適得其反,被利用顛覆兩岸關係的既成基礎,李登輝與陳水扁時代的兩岸關係就是一個非常典型的例子。除了早期的李登輝遵循國民黨的既定兩岸路線外,後期的李登輝與全期的陳水扁都以挑撥兩岸關係,制造「台獨」烏托邦煙硝的能事,以求達致潛議程目的為手段。

鑑此,沒有政治領航的兩岸關係不會取得良好持續的發展,這一點胡六點似乎有所領會。問題是領會是 一回事,落實又是另外一回事。孫中山先生的知易行難,都是兩岸謀求和平與統一永遠的啟迪。技術上,兩岸關係若即若離的間中,不宜維持太久。

或許有人會問,兩岸不是已經建立共識朝著和平協議挺進嗎,筆者堅信兩岸領導人的確想要朝著和平協議前進。沒有人會置疑兩岸的意願,然而這只是兩岸領導人的意願,一個未能跨出雷池半步,欠缺政治承擔的意願。

和平協議不會因為兩岸良性溝通,間接累積互信而暢通,如直通車般把兩岸載到和平門。筆者前文已有交待,實際上,和平協議的是有直通車的,這輛載體車就是「和解」,政治和解也。

※ 要前瞻捨棄「兩會」

在技術與行使戰略的層面上,兩岸不應也不宜繼續通過「兩會」的角色進行政治性溝通。因為兩岸關係發展到目前的層次,已到了政治決策層次的階段,兩會的作用已不大,從汪辜時代到今天,兩岸關係線於取得一定的政治效果,兩會功不可沒,也證明具有民間身份的兩會的功德已圓滿,並為兩岸政體鋪通「政治連接」之路;如果不功成身退,繼續在兩個政治實體間幹旋,傳達信息,只會隔靴搔癢,時間一久可能會適得其反,產生副作用,使兩岸政治和解的取向日趨複雜化。

須知,兩會是功能性事務性的組織,它不可踰越其原本成立的宗旨。基本上它已達致政治前的功能性作用;除非兩岸領導人檢討兩岸關係的成熟性尚未達到政治通達的階段,那又另當別論(這等於承認兩岸關係倒退的「共識」,讓兩會繼續擔綱幹旋要務)。換言之,兩岸關係必須前瞻領航,一些志於為兩岸關係服務的組織成立的目標如果已達致,就應讓路,與時併進,或者重新定位負起新的任務,否則,兩會可能淪為「以促進兩岸關係的同一塊石頭砸自己的腳」。

一個視而不見的心態,當然摸不到「和解門「,看到與摸到,與看到而後認知又是兩回事,只有認知而後行動,這所門是要進的,不是來看看而已,才能開啟之,跨過門檻,登門而進。如果訪客繼續在門外徘徊,門內的等待的人,只有空焦急,最後可能被迫打消等待,這是誠意的考驗,畢竟孤掌難鳴。

和平協議有一所門,這所門就是「和解之門」,沒有和解,何來和平協議,至於和解之門與「互認政治實體「與打開「和平協議之門「為劃上等號的兩位一體;換言之,沒有互認政治實體,即不能啟開與進入「和解門」,沒有政治上的和解,象徵和平共存共榮的和平協議將無法登堂入殿,這就是沒有政治承擔的政治意願(a political will without commitment )的註解。

無論是和解還是和平,都是雙向的,參透不了這一點,兩岸政治關係要取得實質改善,實為緣木求魚,兩岸關係不是靜止的水,不進則退,維持現狀是不可能的,原地踏步亦難矣!

感想: 如此觀之,一岸視而不見「和解門」,和平協議「見樹不見林」,眼高手底,心懷中華民族的全球華社唯有仰天一聲長嘯,擊鼓退堂去了!

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Decision to meet Dalai's representative receives positive responses

Decision to meet Dalai's representative receives positive responses

THE SHOW IS YOURS! MR.CHINA

"The rioters in Lhasa incident are not terrorists. Terrorists are well-planned before head. Those planned to hijack or blow up the airplane Xinjiang extremists are real terrorists.

Categorise rioters to terrorists would push them turn to the terrorists side.

And some Chinese are outraged because some non-Chinese took the chance of Olympic games to defame China. Do people like to be defamed when they are holding a big event to show they want peaceful competition?"(quote)

The writer tend to consent with the view of 1001.It doesn't help anybody to 'elevate' the Tibetan Youth Congress as terrorist group at par with the Xinkiang extremist group, except to bring joy to the enemies of China who are hiding in the dark corners to cheer the animosity between China vs. the West and Tibet is only a tool.

For goodness sack if the writer may speak his mind, China should adopt a cool wait and see attitude before jumping into conclusion by declaring the Tibet group as terrorist group, comparable to the West especially the US used to declare China as her number one potential enemy by circumcise China before the 70's, and in response to that China has worked hard to become one.

With the cold war ended long and the demise of ideological warfare, globalization taking over the helm, the days of unipolarity of the American is numbered, sooner multi-polarities shall set to shape the destiny of the new global order. The writer is sure and confident that China is making conscious preparation to play a more meaningful role expected of her by the international community sooner, and the Olympic and the two Ts issues shall provide the opportunity and platforms to China to usher and showcase to the world that a benign China expected of her ,and as painted by herself -- a HARMONIOUS China is emerging--bringing new meaning to PEACE to the world of which is indeed longing for something from China beyond materialistic and physical(economical) contribution--new values to help shape new added values of the orient on top of the underlying universal values, all aiming to make our only world better ,sustainable peaceful and harmonious(within mankind and with the environment)to live--by adopting the middle way of moderation.

HOW China tackle Tibet and Taiwan (although the nature of the two are essentially different, but the underlying values are common) for that matter the rioters and the so called ‘separatists’, the show belong to China, China is the player the judge would be the world; at the meantime, enough is enough! The self-justified and overenthusiastic western powers should know where to put a full stop to the on-going drama to antagonize and embarrass a harmonious rising China, and if the writer wishes may be realized: all threatening boycott show of Beijing Olympic Games opening ceremony should come to close NOW! So long! Mr. president of France (sorry, I am Chinese educated, I can't figure out how to spell your name! but for that matter many Chinese would remember your Chinese name).

President Hu Jintao meets with Japanese PM Fukuda

President Hu Jintao meets with Japanese PM Fukuda

What have President Hu Jintao and reputed Japanese world ambassador Mr.Daiseku Ikeda share in common? It’s none other than peace and people first humanistic value.

In this era of hectic physical and material centric development, the urgency to promote peace and harmony has never seem to be so challenging and compelling to re-emphasis the two traditional values as old as human history. Having reflected what nations, societies, groups or sects are doing or have done to pursue their respective goals and ambitions disregard to peace and harmony, in what ever name and thinking are infact tantamount to homicide of mankind.

We may take a step backward to recollect how the past few decades the world were in a relatively stable and civilized environment without large scale wars, however peace and harmony are still as elusive as human mind.Obviously, peace and harmony have been taken for granted without being appreciated, and to the writer urgently requiring a cultural renaissance to priorities the two good and old value into their right perspective, not only within society but in international community.

Mr.Ikeda is a renowned contemporary educationalist, proponent of humanistic Buddhism, and reputed world peace ambassador of Japan to the world; For the past half a century he had persistently and passionately promote peace to the every corners of the world and had earned the prestige Noble peace prize.

For the good of world peace, and aiming to open up a new chapter for model to be emulate, contributing and elevating to long term peaceful and harmonious development of Sino -Japanese relationship ,this writer suggested that president includes a visit to Mr.Ikeda into his itinerary during the president's official visit to Japan scheduled in early month of 2008.Perhaps China and Japan may join hands to explore how the two neighbors which share common origin of culture in Confucianism and Buddhism, to "reinstate" peace and harmony into "people first" humanistic value system, contributing to the reshaping of world new order, kicking off a cultural renaissance initiative for Sino-Japan, both for bilateral relationship and for world peace.

China devoted to improving human rights - minister

China devoted to improving human rights - minister

NETIZENs LEAD the WAY

Human rights and civil rights are interwoven. In country like
China they are inseparable as human rights are not organized
,are sporadic and are not represented,least to say being championed in China.

Its high time that China relooks at how basic human rights can be represented by allowing NGOs to in come to play their legal and indispensable role in the frame work of China new and decent society of check and balance to abuse of power and social injustice, from there to groom the very foundation and birth of a civil society which is fundamental in shaping of a democracy society ,if China govt under CPC rule meant what it said that democracy is good stuff( mingzhu shi how dongxi).

After 30 years of unprecedented economic reform, the writer think that if at all master Deng is still around today he would be happy to see China taking another bold step to follow up on his unfinished reform/mission to the outdated political system and allow its people who had been starved of political freedom and to certain extend deprived of basic human rights and civil rights,to enjoy freedom of speech in the society .

AND it starts with the right to organize themselves to be heard and taken accounted for their rights in a probable ,accountable and legal manner,netizens has come a long way, and with netizens expected to double to more than 500 million by 2012 in China ,making preparation now is not early but urgent ,and now is better than never.

Blessing and betting on the far-sightedness of China's leadership under president Hu and premier Wen,and also on how netizens get themselves organized ,the on-going incidents of anti-dependence of Tibet and anti-French sentiments reflected and stemmed from their nationalism and patriotism are testimonial to grass root power ,guide them and shape before time runs out !

The blessing of this writer is always with far-sighted, wise and fearless leaders of tomorrow.

President Hu Jintao delivers New Year Message

President Hu Jintao delivers New Year Message



We will also adhere to the basic principle of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems". We will grasp firmly the theme of peace and development in handling cross-Straits relations, and work for the well-being of compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits, strive for peace in the region and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.(quote)

This is perhaps the most peaceful and harmonious sounding and appealing new year speech of president Hu Jintao ,as the word peace /peaceful has been mentioned eight times in the president short welcome speech of 2008.The most impressive part being to adhere to the basic principle of "peaceful reunification and one country, two systems";a renewed political resolution to bring back Taiwan by peaceful mean, and commitment to work for the wellbeing of compatriots of both sides of cross Straits, in the course of pursuing the goal of reunification in relationship to national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

With the unwavering commitment to peace and stability in the region, peaceful reunification of Taiwan with China has clearly been craved out as indispensable part of the a bigger picture of "peace, harmony and stability building" of the region; of which peaceful mean to the cause of reunification to bring back Taiwan has become the foundation of the message (words) of peace and stability of the region to be fulfilled in deed and action.

Inspite of repeated provocative stances adopted by Mr.Bian on the other shore ,the start of 2008 see the tone of benign and conducive atmosphere set by president Hu, some one might be prompt to ask: what are the underlying basic and principles to start the ball rolling for consensus building prior to formal negotiations of reunification? to the writer mind ,if at all formal talks can begin "warning up" sessions must be trusted out to meet the following five pre-requisities:

Equality: only with equality comes peace, both are mutual respectful and respectable negotiation partners(NOT rivals);

Democracy: with commitment of endowment of framework of basic right to the people for self determination of their common fate, start with public hearings, NOT on decision of reunification(Strictly not construed as referendum ),but How and WHEN, this is to encourage early stage of participation democracy(inline with value of scientific outlook of political development with Chinese characteristics).

Rule of law: with rule of law, communities of cross Straits can act according to the tenets of law and judiciary in pursuing their rights enshrined in the constitution, as reunification process is a double track with process of democratization and very time consuming (long term).

Mutual recognition: only with political entity, entitlements and rights being recognized as legal and de-facto representatives of their respective political empowerment(or govts);than the reunification negotiations and process of reunification itself can be laden on strong legal base ;otherwise, formal and official negotiations could not start without political power to represent, present and decide mutually;

Conciliation :base on the above four principles to reach mutual Consensus of cross Straits, the table is set for talks to conduct .And the above is prelude to reaching CONCILATION, with that "blessing" jump on track to reunification.

It is imperative to bear in mind that, this is cross Straits negotiation prior to the reunification negotiation itself ,not yet arrive at a "one country two systems "stage, and mind you, the writer can forecast, eventually if the path to reunification can be allowed to take place with blessing from both shores and realized, the sum would be greater than the input, a GREATER CHINA(Da Zhong Hua) would be born encompassing a new entity not only for cross Straits communities, but for every Chinese globally to take patronage and be proud of.

To the writer ,this might be the common aspiration of every Chinese in 2008,to see the staging of ice-breaking journey turning to ice-melting comparable to the official visit of premier Wen to Japan in 2007;and mind you a journey of a thousand miles have to start somewhere under the first step. With self confidence and self assertiveness of mainland China rising to unprecedented level, 2008 shall witness new effort with formula/solution approach to tackle the issue of reunification. These are arising from a new mindset beyond bondage of pessimistic history, and are within expectation of this writer.

Move on GREATER CHINA (Da Zhong Hua), the world is in waiting!!!

Britain opposes Taiwan's planned referendum on UN bid

Britain opposes Taiwan's planned referendum on UN bid

PERSEVERANCE for REUNIFICATION

The issue of reunification of China is not a conventional game of taking which sides of the "rivalry”, though it does help to make it clear in the international arena that what is advisable and feasible and what is not.

Reunification is a process of integration and resonation between two political entities of the same blood and bone (gu ru siang lian),which is forced to separate by history and political differences ,and no body should be blamed for that misfortunate befalls Zhonghua Mingzhu,if we were to look ahead and beyond history (zhao yee li shi)and are determined to resolve the backage of history, and are perseverance to stand the test of time to walk our own unique way of reunification by peaceful and democratic mean.

For one thing is crystal clear if we were to recreate history and avoid the pitfall of pressimism of history, international forum or diplomatic channel is the outer circumstances and atmosphere to be optimise to shape the fate, BUT the core of reunification is still glued to the attitude and positions and underlying values adopted by both shores of cross Straits communities, outsiders cannot help or meddle in!

The stand of international community on the issue of the planned referendum of Taiwan to join UN in the name of Taiwan reflects the reality that the bid is obviously neither feasible and workable, and somewhat the message of nature of "deadend political decision" are clearly written on the wall, may be viewed as "suicidal attempt"by DPP and Mr. Chen Sui Bian (if they still insisted to conduct the referendum post suffering heavy legislative election defeat).

To the writer, what is crucial from now till the presidential election in March, is a extra sensitive period to the Taiwanese, especially those who voted for KMT candidates during the legislative election, and KMT is viewed as the alternate political party which can make peace with mainland China ,according to understanding reached under "consensus 1992".As during this transitional period prior to the presidential election ,many new supporters of KMT especially ex-supporters of DPP are watchful and can interpreted their own ways the happenings as shrinking the survival of Taiwan in international arena or diplomatic domain, as high-handed ,suppressing to the negotiating position of Taiwan with mainland China.


Any wrong messages send to the peaceful reunification of China might not help the situation and might be a deterrent to jump start pre-negotiation of reunification.

On the contrary, the writer feel that this is the golden opportunity for mainland China to correct the misconception that she is suppressing the survival of Taiwan in international arena; The result of the legislative election is the first positive and strong indication that the stand of KMT on reunification issue is endorsed ,but there is long way to go, as anything can change for the "mandate" can be disturbed ,as the voters who supported reunification should not be penalised for the wrong doings by Mr.Bian mainly due to promoting referendum to join UN.

Perseverance and caution is the name of the game, as first hurdle is cleared now ;both sides required some space to take stock of the mandate and verdict of Taiwanese voters, as emphasised by president Hu that the ultimately the interest of 23 million Taiwan patriots are also taken in account for the great cause of reunification of China.

Hu Jintao meets KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan

Hu Jintao meets KMT Honorary Chairman Lien Chan

WALK PEACE NOW!for ZHONGHUA MINGZHU

Despite the unexpected "contrary" appointment of Mdm Lai Sing Yen as chief of Taiwan's mainland affairs by president in-waiting Ma Ying -Geou
the meeting of president Hu Jinto and KMT honorary chairman Lien Chain is another another rejuvenating follow-up meeting between leaders of both shores for ice-melting after 60 years of separation by ideological differences between China under CPC and Taiwan under ROC;And this writer can see this has not unduly dampen the sentiment of meeting of both leaders.

But what is important is what were mentioned and without during the meeting of two leaders. Based on the media report,what were not mentioned continue to carry far -fetch implication of the "conditional" peaceful development of relationship of both shores especially political and issues of reunification in the process.


This were the second time "one China policy "and "one country two systems" were not mentioned since Boao meeting in mid April between president Hu and vice-president in waiting Mr.Siao Wan Chang(which were described as historical and of highest ranking of both shores since 1949 of breaking up);And this writer observed that the 92'Consensus were only mentioned once.The routine attack on "Taiwan pro-independence clique" were also "eclipsed".

But equally important is of course "recognition of the differences of definition of one China"(yi zhong ge biao);of which "yi zhong ge biao" is now the sole consensus of 92'Consensus(if otherwise,there would not be any consensus left of 92'Consensus ,and 92'Consensus would be hollowing-out or null and void for it is a body without soul;Or indicating that both sides are prepared to restate the talks from zero sum.)

President Hu has called for "substantial efforts for the welfare of Chinese compatriots on both sides,to seek peace across the Taiwan Straits and create a new situation for the peaceful development of cross-Straits relationship."
The mention of "effort ...to create a new situation" is indeed very significant ,and this should be the source to draw inspiration for Taiwan leaders to seek consensus with mainland leaders to work toward ,creating a win-win (new)solution for peaceful development of cross -Straits relationship.

Besides reiteration of five-stanza of "building mutual trust ,laying aside disputes,seeking consensus and shelving differences,and creating a win-win situation",of which president Hu had said so firstly in Boao;this time around,he seems to be opening up new avenue /space for negotiation(negotiation is more encouraging than mere talks),and perhaps more readily to consider "innovative" suggestion from Taiwan ,after taking recognition of the differences of definition (of one China),and that might account for president Hu refraining from mentioning of the two perceived principles (one China and one Country two systems) of reunification for two consecutive high ranking meetings since Boao.

To this writer ,benign and positive messages has been delivered from the mainland since tele conversation between president Hu and president Bush in early March ,of which for the first time "yi zhong ge biao"(meant to differ on the definition of one China) has been confirmed by official Xinhua news agency reports;ITS TIME NOW for both mainland and Taiwan to restore consultation and talks on the basic of 92'Consensus (if it is still there) ,recognize the differences of definition, and from there move forward to identifying common ground ,to allow the birth of a common entity of embodiment of the two political entities/regimes--People Republic of China (PRC)on the mainland and Republic Of China (ROC)on Taiwan-- to merge into one new entity,which is along the line of visionary Greater China,or the proposed Republic of Greater China (RGC).

Back to the topic ,one thing is sure ,for 1.4 billion compatriots on both shores separated by 180km wide Straits for at least 60 years;without reaching political binding consensus as baseline ,setting as great goal towards realization of reunification of China ,economic ,people to people (P2P) and business to business(B2B) integration between both shores could not go far and deep, without the de-facto blessing of the political masters of both shores;and under such situation ,leaders of both shores simply have failed the people /their compatriots,their mission to build permanent peace feature,and not least their mission owed to Zhonghua Mingzhu.

Best wishes to them ,if leaders of both shores had the benefit and interest of the people deep inside the blossom of their hearts,and do it without fear and favor,the writer is full of ray of confidence and formidable conviction that they can do it.As it is not only a path of reunification of Zhonghua Mingzhu,but a PATH of PEACE and HARMONY TO WALK,and to realize the visionary Greater China's due contribution to the world at large.